A rapid decrease in fertility has become a trend in most developing countries in the late 20th century. The first UN-organized World Population Conference (1974) in Bucharest raised the slogan “development is the best contraceptive”, which turned out to be a slogan that fitted the growth pattern of developed countries better. In the late 20th century, even countries without much development witnessed a considerable decrease in the fertility rate and birth rate because of access to new forms of contraception.

In a Bayesian model developed by Alkema et al. (2011) that projects China’s future fertility rates based on 1) the fertility trend in China before launching the One-Child Policy and 2) the fertility trends of other countries, the fertility rate in China would have continued to decline and by 2010 it would have fallen to the level observed in 1998. In other words, the One-Child Policy has accelerated an inevitable trend. Nevertheless, the number of births prevented is still enormous because of China’s huge population base.

The 37-year-long policy has impacted every aspect of Chinese society, from the family structure of many households, an unbalanced sex ratio at birth, to an aging labor market that may influence generations to come. On the other hand, the compulsory policy has also contributed to a nation with less population burden where more living and educational resources can be distributed to each child. Here, I could just name a few impacts brought by the policy, as nothing can be only measured by numbers to determine whether it is necessary.



Definition of Fertility rate:
Total fertility rate (TFR),the average number of children a woman would have if she lived to the end of her childbearing years